By Jeffrey Haynes, Professor of Politics, London Metropolitan University, UK
In recent years, Ghanaians have seen increasing numbers of so-called election prophecies.
Emmanuel Sackey defines ‘election prophecies’‘as pre-election declarations in the public sphere, relating to the outcome of national elections’.[1]
They are issued by religious leaders, who claim that the revelations that their prophecies contain come direct from God.
The phenomenon is increasingly common over the last two decades, notably since the second round of the 2000 presidential elections.
The return to democracy in 1992 encouraged some religious figures to venture into politics when making prophetic declarations.
Religious figures engaging in this pursuit include traditional spiritualists and Muslim clerics, as well as, rather prominently, Pentecostal-Charismatic pastors. Over the last few years, the numbers of political prophecies, including in relation to elections, has increased.
2024 is of course an election year, and related prophecies came thick and fast in January. Some believe that such prophecies are a significant cause of political instability.
Ghana has long been recognised as one of the most politically stable countries in Africa. Is stability significantly threatened by religious figures’ political prophecies, including in relation to prospects of electoral outcomes and related violence and conflicts?
Many religious leaders comment on what they see as the likely outcome of the 2024 elections,including political violence during the electoral period.
Their pronouncements may be a significant factor in encouraging their followers to vote one or another as well as to engage in electoral political violence.
Some contend that political prophecies are likely to aggravate prevailing mistrust in both the electoral process and identity politics, with a negative impact on Ghana’s hard won political stability.
Most Ghanaians are religious believers and it may be that religion has the potential to lead to radical transformation for the good in Ghana. On the other hand, overtly commenting on and engaging with the political process of multiparty elections and democratic processes may lead to increased political instability.
Some religious leaders have large followings, numbered in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, and thy are believed to be very influential in their followers’ lives. Religious leaders claim that their prophecies come direct from God.
It may be that their electoral predictions significantly affect how their followers vote and how they behave more widely at election time.
When religious leaders claim that God is stating, via prophecy, that a certain candidate or party will win an electoral contest then what does this mean for electoral outcomes? In a new book, the political scientist, Seidu Alidu, states that ‘faith in religion and religious leaders and what they predict are influential to their adherents, even in areas where they lack the competence to do so’.[2]
Might it be that some of the religious leaders’ followers will vote for the candidate apparently ‘endorsed’ by God and thus affect electoral outcomes?
When religious leaders’ followers toe the line in terms of voting, then the prediction/prophecy of their leaders is more likely to become true.
This is significant in an era where religious leaders are quickly labelled ‘fake’ when their prophecies are not fulfilled. Critics claim that while this practice might be welcomed as a symptom of democratic development and expansion of Ghana’s political culture to prominent religious figures, it may also be a serious threat to the country’s democratic consolidation and Ghana’s secular status.
For example, prior to the 2016 presidential elections, an Islamic numerologist,Mallam Shamuna Ustaz Jibril, predicted a win for the New Patriotic Party’s presidential candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo, and when the latter did indeed win, the Mallam claimed credit due to his spiritual calculations and visions.
The Mallam also prophesied a win for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, John Mahama, prior to the 2020 presidential election and when Mahama did not win, the Mallam justified his wrong call by claiming that his prediction did not come from God.
Prior to the 2024 elections,prominent religious leaders, including Isaac Owusu Bempah, Head Pastor of Glorious Word Power Ministries International,Prophet Nigel Gaisie, founder and leader of Prophetic Hill Church, Archbishop Elisha Salifu Amoako of Alive Chapel International and Apostle Kofi King (aka ‘The Global Prophet’), seekto shape public opinion in relation to electoral outcomes.
Pentecostal-Charismatic leaders widely engage in the practice of political prophecy. The year began with assorted Pentecostal-Charismatic leaders making election predictions in their annual prophecies.
Among others, Pastor Owusu-Bempah, Prophet Nigel Gaisie, Archbishop Elisha Salifu Amoako and Apostle Kofi King, are all active in the prophecy ‘business’.
In December 2023, Owusu-Bempah predicted a ‘total shutdown in power’ in 2024, urging‘all the actors in the energy sector to sit up on their jobs’.
According to Owusu-Bempah, the energy ‘situation will be worse as compared to the previous power crisis witnessed in the country’.
Following his December 2023 prophecy, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Dr. George Akuffo Dampare, urged ‘Men of God’ to stop‘creating fear and panic in their prophesies for the New Year’.
While the IGP noted that the right to practice faith and freedom of speech is guaranteed by the 1992 constitution, this right is tempered by a universal requirement to show respect for the rights and freedoms of others and the public and not raise fears unnecessarily.
Founder and leader of the Alive Chapel International, Archbishop Elisha Salifu Amoako, predicted a violent 2024 election, including a run-off, as well as the deaths of four leaders and as many pastors.
Prophet Nigel Gaisie stated that the opposition NDC would win the 2024 general elections, and John Mahama would become president.
Apostle Kofi King also prophesied that the NDC would win the 2024 presidential election.
Owusu-Bempah hedged his bets in relation to the electoral outcome: he did not predict who will win the 2024 election, although he did claim that ‘the sea ’would turn ‘bloody.
The sea is Ghana and the blood relates to the spillage of blood this year, seen via revelation.
He also related to sea with sharks fighting with fishes getting wounded’. He claimed that there was ‘no need to think of who will win but the bloody circumstance is what citizens must work to avert’ and that it was necessary for God to intervene.
If not, ‘there could be confusion and attendant mayhem that could trigger blood spillage and unfortunate things will happen’(https://www.ghpage.com/2024-elections-will-be-red-and-fire-list-of-prophet-owusu-bempahs-2024-prophecies/301196/).
Political prophecies, including in relation to election outcomes,seem here to stay. What significance do they have? Are they merely attempts by religious leaders to make themselves more prominent in the eyes of their followers?Or are they something more momentous and potentially problematic: indications of dangerous meddling in politics, which increase the likelihood of electoral conflict and violence?
[1] Emmanuel Sackey, ‘Election Prophecies and Political Stability in Ghana’, in Barbara Bompani and Caroline Valois (eds.), Christian Citizens and theMoral Regeneration of the African State, Routledge, 2018, at p. 49.
[2]Seidu M. Alidu, ‘Polls, Pundits and Religious Leaders: The Politics of Predicting Election Outcomes in Ghana’s Fourth Republic’, in Joseph Ayee, Lloyd G. Amoah and Seidu M. Alidu (eds.), Political Institutions and Communication Perspectives in Ghana. Three Decades of the Fourth Republic, Springer, 2024.
