The euro is fast establishing itself as a global safe haven currency, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.
Nigel Green of deVere Group’s comments come as the single currency has surged more than 8% against the US dollar in April alone—its strongest monthly performance in over two years—as investors flee from the fallout of President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs.
“The euro is being recast in real time as a stability anchor,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere.
“This isn’t a technical bounce. It’s a deliberate and strategic repositioning by global investors who are increasingly wary of US assets.”
Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 has triggered a profound reassessment of economic risk.
The EUR/USD exchange rate has jumped from around 1.05 to 1.1379, while the dollar index has slumped 4.6% over the same period.
Analysts are now warning of a 50% chance of a US recession, citing erratic policymaking, supply chain disruptions, and weakening consumer sentiment.
“US policy volatility is repelling investment, while Europe is showing signs of renewed fiscal confidence and coordination,” continues Nigel Green.
“That confidence is underpinned by Germany’s €500 billion stimulus plan and the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut—measures designed to jumpstart growth and shake off the continent’s reputation for austerity.
“Structural forces are also in play: with Europe’s trade surplus with the US narrowing, the euro is under less downward pressure, giving it fresh upward momentum.”
European investors—who hold significant foreign equity and bond positions—are reconsidering the risk-reward balance of keeping money parked in the US. Once drawn in by superior returns and dollar strength, they’re now scaling back, cautious of softening earnings, rising fiscal deficits, and currency volatility. The euro, by contrast, is becoming a store of relative stability.
“The safe-haven status the dollar has long enjoyed is no longer automatic,” the chief executive explains.
“It depends on trust, policy clarity, and long-term viability. Right now, the euro is offering a clearer, more credible alternative.”
Fund flow data already shows the early contours of a global rebalancing.
“There’s a steady rotation out of dollar-denominated assets and into the eurozone. This calculated shift reflects deeper skepticism about America’s economic outlook and a search for currencies backed by strategic capital investment and cohesive policy.
The broader theme here is revaluation. What markets are now pricing in isn’t just slower growth in the US—it’s political and economic inconsistency.
At the same time, Europe’s pivot toward investment-led expansion is inviting fresh demand. This divergence is reshaping the FX market and creating opportunities for those attuned to macro signals.
“This is more than a currency story,” adds Green. “It’s a clear indicator of how the world is beginning to think differently about risk, resilience, and return. Safe havens are no longer defined just by history—they’re being defined by current policy response, structural strength, and leadership clarity.”
For institutional and retail investors alike, the implications are substantial.
As Europe draws in capital, the euro is increasingly becoming a counterweight to dollar-based volatility. This shift opens the door for broader portfolio diversification, with euro-denominated assets taking a more central role in global strategies.
Nigel Green says: “Trump may have hoped his tariffs would reindustrialize the US and strengthen its economic hand.
“Instead, they’ve helped reposition the euro as the global safety valve—fuelled by structural change, market psychology, and the growing sense that when it comes to capital, credibility counts.”
He concludes: “As volatility persists and political noise intensifies, the euro’s role is becoming clearer: not just a regional currency, but a safe harbour in a time of global economic recalibration.”
