Democracy in Ghana has endured since the country’s return to constitutional rule in 1992. Two major political parties have been vibrant and have ruled the country for 16 years apiece since 1992. The major challenge for these parties is winning three consecutive elections. In this article, I discuss the issue of “breaking the eight” in Ghanaian politics, and how it has become difficult for these parties to achieve this feat.
Ghana is currently in its Fourth Republican constitutional era. The Fourth Republic means that there has been an end to three previous constitutions since 1960. Each time a constitution is halted or toppled down marks the end of that constitutional era. There have been some series of military interventions which necessitated the progress of constitutional rule. The last military intervention in Ghana was on 31st December, 1981 by the late Air Force Flight Lieutenant John Jerry Rawlings against the then Dr. Hilla Limann government under the Third Republic.
J.J. Rawlings ruled as the military head for more than a decade before Ghanaians cried out for a return to democracy. A referendum was conducted in 1992 and over 90% of Ghanaians voted yes for democracy. This unlocked the opportunity for Ghana to draft another constitution and begin another dispensation. This also gave the opportunity to people or groups of people to establish political parties to enable them participate in the presidential election in November 1992.
As is evident in every multi-party democracy, there was the emergence of two political parties that became popular with their ideology and populism. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) became the two dominant parties and have since been.
In the 1992 general elections, the then military government led by Mr Rawlings and his Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC), had metamorphosed into a new political party, NDC, and was ready to contest the election. The NPP was also led by the eminent professor of history Adu Boahene. At the end of the election, the now metamorphosed military leader had become the new president of the Fourth Republic.
Mr. Rawlings won a second term election against a new flagbearer of the NPP,Mr John Agyekum Kufuor. This meant that Mr. Rawlings was serving his last term as president as it is stipulated in the 1992 constitution. After his tenure, the NDC had spent eight years in office and was seeking to win a third consecutive term with a different candidate.
In the December 2000 election, the NDC was led by the thenVice PresidentProf. Evans Atta Mills. This time, the NDC sought to win the election to continue with their administration but unfortunately, this goal of theirs did not materialise as they were defeated by the NPP and its candidate Mr. Kufuor. This was the first time the NPP had won an election since Ghana’s return to multi-party democracy under the Fourth Republic.
What could have been the reason(s) the NDC lost the election? Many factors contributed to their defeat, and prominent among them were economic difficulties, a high rate of unemployment and incumbency disadvantage. These factors made it difficult for Prof. Mills and the NDC to convince Ghanaians to vote for them again.
After the two main parties failed to get the required percentage (50% plus 1) to win the first round, the election ended in a run-off after 21 days. After the run-off, the NPP,with their flagbearer, Mr. Kufuor emerged as the winner with an overwhelming endorsement from Ghanaians.
Mr. Kufuor won his second term against a familiar foe, Prof. Mills, of the NDC. Ghanaians felt the good governance of the NPP and decided to give them another term. The NDC did their best but was unsuccessful. They would try another time.
In the 2008 general elections, Mr Kufuor was not eligible to contest as he had finished his tenure of office, but his party, the NPP, had the chance to file another candidate to face the old face of the NDC, Prof. Mills. The NPP presented Mr. Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
The 2008 general elections presented some interesting dimensions of Ghanaian politics. It was the third time the NDC candidate, Prof. Mills, was contesting, and the NPP was trying to win a third consecutive term. Both incumbency advantage and incumbency disadvantage played a crucial role in making sure the NPP lost the election; incumbency advantage because the NPP candidate had all state apparatus at his disposal, and incumbency disadvantage because the people of Ghana were tired of the NPP and the economic difficulty they had brought them into. Other pertinent issues included an increase in armed robbery and water challenges.
The other interesting narrative about the 2008 election was that even after the run-off, there was no clear winner between Prof. Mills and Mr. Akufo-Addo. The Electoral Commission organised a “mini-election” for the people of Tain in the then Brong Ahafo Region because they could not participate in the main election earlier. It was after the results ofthe Tain election came in that Ghanaians got a new president-elect with a few days for him to assume office.
This means that this was the second time a political party had failed to win a third consecutive term in Ghana. The NDC could not do so in the2000 election, and the NPP also could not do it in 2008.
A few months before the 2012 election, the sitting President, Prof. Mills, died and paved the way for Mr. Mahama to take charge as the interim president. The NDC quickly affirmed Mr. Mahama as their candidate to face NPP’sMr.Akufo-Addo. Mr. Mahama won the 2012 election for the NDC making it a second term for them. The NPP and Mr.Akufo-Addo did not accept the outcome of the election and decided to go to court. After about eight months of electoral dispute, the court ruled against the NPP and reaffirmed that Mr. Mahama won the election.
Prior to the 2016 election, there were a lot of difficulties which confronted the NDC administration, which brought some untold hardship on Ghanaians: Dumsor (powerchallenges), a popular issue, coupled with some severe economic challenges. Notwithstanding, Mr.Mahama was seeking his second term in office while his party was also seeking a third term win which has never happened in Ghana.
The NDC strategically presented Mr. Mahama as someone who was seeking a second term while the NPP also used the third term mantra against them.
With a plethora of promises by the NPP, coupled with economic hardship and incumbency disadvantage, the NPP and Mr. Akufo-Addo won the 2016 election overwhelmingly. If Mr. Mahama had won, he would have won a third term for the NDC and a second term for himself, but this did not happen.
In the 2020 election, Mr. Akufo-Addo and the NPP won a second term against the NDC and their candidate Mr. Mahama. Mr. Mahama did not accept the results of the election and went to court. After about three months of dispute at the court, the court upheld the results of the election and threw the case away with a unanimous decision by the Supreme Court.
Per the provision of the Constitution of Ghana, Mr. Akufo-Addo is not eligible to contest again, and as such, the NPP have elected Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia,the Vice President, as their candidate as flagbearer against Mr.Mahama of the NDC.
In the past two years, the NPP have brought this slogan breaking the 8,which simply means they want to do something which has never been done in Ghanaian politics; winning a third term under the Fourth Republic. This has been their rhetoric for over two years.
Currently, in Ghana, the economic challenges are unbearable for many Ghanaians. The sufferings of Ghanaians are unprecedented, and it is difficult for the average Ghanaian to afford a good meal a day. The plethora of promises the NPP government made are not seen and felt by many Ghanaians. So, with all these challenges, it is difficult to comprehend the NPP say that they would“break the eight” and win a third term. The state in which the country finds itself now has never been before. Every sector of the Ghanaian society is deteriorating, and thereis no leader in the country. It therefore beats common sense and logic for the NPP to want to win a third consecutive term. However,whether this is possible or not depends on the decision Ghanaians make.
Former President Mahama wants to make a political comeback while the NPP wants to break the eight-year cycle in Ghanaian politics; such interesting times to come.
If you look at the situation and condition in Ghana and how every sector of the country is bleeding, it is difficult for any candidate to campaign and convince Ghanaians to vote for them. Other people also do not want a second coming of Mr. Mahama as they say the memory he brings is not pleasant.
If history is anything to go by, and if Ghanaians will be consistent with their way of voting during each party’s third term attempt at the polls, then the music in the air is not pleasing to the NPP and Dr. Bawumia. We shall witness another history in this year’s election.
Young Positivist, a concerned citizen of Ghana.
Author: Sampson Boamah ([email protected])
