Don’t expect fuel prices to drop anytime soon

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– IES

In early September, the Institute of Energy Security accurately predicted that gas prices would exceed the ¢5/litre mark by the end of September. Now they foresee another increase, according to analysis it gathered.

In an IES report, the think tank says world oil market prices shot up to $79/barrel – a 2.34percent increase. But right before the September’s 2nd pricing window ended, that number plummeted, making it the biggest one-day decline in more than two years. Gasoline and gasoil remained steady: at GH¢4.85 and GH¢4.83, respectively.

“While analysts projected Brent crude kissing the $80 mark by November, it happened even before the end of September, currently trading at $81.34 per barrel. For Global Platt’s benchmark of finished products, price of Gasoline reduced by 2.64%,” Mikdad Mohammed, a research analyst at IES said in a statement.

Alinco Oil, Frimps Oil, Pacific, Fraga Oil, Zen Petroleum, Benab Oil, Pacific, and Lucky currently sell the lowest-priced fuel.

The cedi made slight marginal gains against the dollar within the prior pricing window, said IES.

“The dollar is selling for GH¢4.89 currently as against GH¢4.95 in the last pricing window, a 1.2 percent difference.”

And despite oil marketing companies’ complaints of depressed margins, IES “doesn’t rule out the strong possibility of prices reducing marginally at some select fuel stations as a result of competition for markets shares among the OMCs.”

Read the full statement here:

FUEL PRICES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED

REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2018 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW

Local Fuel Market Performance

Prices of fuel at the pumps experienced increments of more than 4% during the Pricing-window under review;

crossing the GH¢5 threshold, as IES projected. From the first day of the window, some Oil Marketing Companies

(OMCs) adjusted prices up to GH¢5.18 and GH¢5.14 for Gasoline and Gasoil respectively. Competition among

OMCs led by GOIL drove prices down by around GHp0.6 as average prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil is currently GH¢5.10 at the pump. IES Market-scan revealed Alinco Oil, Frimps Oil, Pacific, Fraga Oil, Zen

Petroleum, Benab Oil, Pacific, and Lucky sell the least-priced fuel relative to other OMCs.

World Oil Market Average price of Brent crude has seen an increment of about 2.34 percent within the window, rising from $77.54 per barrel to $79.32 per barrel. While analysts projected Brent crude kissing the $80 mark by November, it happened even before the end of September, currently trading at $81.34 per barrel. For Global Platt’s benchmark of finished products, price of Gasoline reduced by 2.64 percent. On the contrary, Gasoil inched up slightly by 0.43 percent, Gasoline and

Gasoil closed trading at $731.07 per metric tonne and $689.25er metric tonne respectively. Previously, Gasoil sold at $686.32 per metric tonne, while Gasoline traded for $747.23 per metric tonne.

Local Forex and Fuel Stock

IES economic Desk figures show the cedi made some very marginal gains against the US Dollar within the period, after showing weakness in the previous window. The dollar is selling for GH¢4.89 currently as against GH¢4.95 in the last pricing window, a 1.2 percent difference. Within the window, fuel terminals across the country received quantities of Gasoil, ATK, LPG and Base Oil to add to the country’s stock level. The highest within the period was a consignment of 33,500 metric tonnes of Gasoil delivered on behalf of seven (7) BDCs. In all, the country received 42,000mt of Gasoil, 10,500mt of ATK, 4,800mt of Base Oil and 12,500mt of LPG. No Gasoline import was recorded.

OUR PROJECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2018 FIRST PRICING-WINDOW

While average price of Brent crude oil has shot up, prices of finished products have gone the reverse; Gasoline declined beyond 2 percent points with less than 0.5 percent increase for Gasoil. Despite the cedi recording some marginal gains against the dollar within the period, the Institute for Energy Security projects prices of fuel to remain the same at the pumps for October 1st Pricing-window. Despite complaints of depressed margins from the OMCs, IES, however, doesn’t rule out the strong possibility of prices reducing marginally at some select fuel stations as a result of competition for markets shares among the OMCs.

Signed: MIKDAD MOHAMMED

Research Analyst- 0244374325

(mikdad@iesgh.org)

 

 

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